Dominance, Disparity, and the Challenge of Sustained Success in College Tennis
By Drew Albaugh | @Drew_Albaugh
The 2025 season has gone according to plan for Syracuse women’s tennis. The Orange are 4-0 to start the year, with their closest match ending in a 5-2 victory. However, dominant starts are nothing new for Syracuse. The Orange have opened the season with four straight wins in each of the last three years.
What’s more, in the first month of the season, Syracuse has maintained a winning percentage above .800 over the past decade. However, this early success is often overshadowed by a disappointing final two-thirds of the season, which has plagued the program in recent years. The last time Syracuse made the NCAA Tournament was all the way back in 2021.
So, what is causing this drastic shift in performance? The answer is clear: conference play.
In ACC competition, Syracuse has finished with a 4-9 record in three consecutive seasons. On the other hand, the Orange dominate out-of-conference opponents, posting a winning percentage above .700. This discrepancy between Power Five and non-Power Five competition is common across NCAA sports, but it is especially prevalent in tennis.
One key reason for this is the lack of positional diversity in tennis. Unlike team sports such as football, basketball or baseball—which require a variety of skill sets across different positions—tennis has only one position: tennis player. In sports like basketball, a team needs a mix of guards, forwards and centers, each fulfilling specific roles. In football, offensive linemen, quarterbacks and defensive backs all have different responsibilities and skill sets. But in tennis, there is no such positional variation. The best player is simply the best, and that creates a major talent funnel at the collegiate level.
Because of this, an overwhelming number of elite tennis players choose to play at top-tier Power Five programs. This leaves mid-major and lower-tier Power Five schools to recruit from a vast pool of good—not great—players.
Think of a bell curve. Most tennis players fall somewhere in the middle third—average or slightly above average, but nothing more. To the right, the curve steeply drops, with the truly elite players making up just about 1% of the total player count. These top players are quickly scooped up by major programs, leaving the vast majority of NCAA programs scrambling for the next tier of talent.
Due to the individual nature of the sport, this gap between the best and the average is far more pronounced in tennis than in other sports. In team sports, a roster can compensate for individual weaknesses by having role players who specialize in certain skills. In tennis, that isn’t an option. You either have elite players or you don’t.
This also explains why tennis sees fewer upsets compared to other sports. The main factor? A lack of variability.
Take basketball, for example. At any given moment, there are 10 players on the court, each making decisions that influence the game. A team can have an off night shooting, commit turnovers, or struggle with defensive matchups. The number of variables in play allows for unexpected outcomes, which is why March Madness consistently produces Cinderella stories.
Tennis, however, is far more deterministic. If a player is better than their opponent, they will win most of the time. One mistake can compound, and there are fewer opportunities for randomness to impact the result. Even if an underdog manages to pull off an upset in an individual match, collegiate tennis requires four individual match wins to secure a team victory. That makes upsets incredibly difficult.
You will never beat Magnus Carlsen at chess, Serena Williams at tennis, or Usain Bolt in a race. However, if you get lucky, you might be able to make a free throw while LeBron James misses. That’s the difference between sports like basketball and tennis—basketball has a much higher margin for randomness. Tennis does not.
For Syracuse, this means that unless the program starts consistently landing top-tier recruits, its early-season dominance will likely continue to be followed by ACC struggles. The Orange are good enough to roll through their non-conference schedule, but against the ACC’s best, they face an uphill battle.
For now, though, Syracuse can enjoy its 4-0 start for the third straight year. Next up, the Orange travel to Chestnut Hill to take on Boston University before opening ACC play against Boston College.
For game updates and all things Syracuse tennis, follow me on Twitter @Drew_Albaugh or @CitrusTVSports.
